Since I started Infinite Futures I’ve been working around
approaches to a number of themes, originally focussing on public services and
foresight or futures thinking & along the way taking in forays into economics,
finance and politics. Having the
opportunity to review books & talk with writers & thinkers &
entrepreneurs has helped me to expand the horizons of this work, & working
without a definitive roadmap has proved (for me, at least!) to be a liberating
& fulfilling experience. New
challenges, original thinking, & creative solutions have come to light on a
regular basis.
At the same
time, I’ve felt as if there is something bigger tying together all of these
things & more. It’s been difficult
to pin this down, & a definitive version still escapes me despite several
attempts to write this piece. But a
recent blog from Matthew Taylor, the Chief
Executive of the RSA, provided a catalyst for this attempt to develop a more
coherent approach. In his piece, Taylor
argues that following the general election there is an opportunity to develop a
radical public debate about Britain’s political economy. The central question to consider is “how
would we judge the economy to be successful in 2030 based on the criteria of
long term human welfare and flourishing?”
This question, & some of the potential answers Taylor
suggests, have helped me to gather my thoughts & experiences with Infinite
Futures. As I’ve already mentioned, this
is far from a completed prospectus, but then one of the beauties of futures
thinking is that tomorrow “does not just happen by itself, automatically. It is created through our actions or inactions
in the present”[1]
and thus is constantly subject to change.
The context
During the last 12 months or so it seems there’s been a
groundswell of opinion from new voices & old seeking to challenge the
orthodoxies in business, public services and wider society. The general election success for the
Conservatives may be considered to be a victory for the status quo & vested
interests, but in reality we’re in a state (& State) of flux. Amongst some of the critical issues are:
·
Economic & social stasis & the continuing
reliance on credit that underpins the recovery
·
The promised EU Referendum, the continuing
“Scottish question” & the challenges these will contain for UK Government
structures & business.
·
Calls for greater Devolution (in different
forms) in England, Wales and Northern Ireland
·
The “Greater Manchester” model & moves towards
devolution to regional & sub-regional areas & the redefinitions of life
in urban areas across the country
·
Perceptions of inequality, the stagnation of
social mobility & the failures of neoliberal economics
·
Technological changes & how society evolves
in kind; with new types of skills, employment, service design and
infrastructure
·
Demographic trends, with an ageing population
leading longer active lives whilst public services contract; and generational
shifts: Generations Y & Z have been born into the internet age, with
different values, different priorities & different expectations
·
The ebb and flow of political movements &
changes to voting patterns
·
Environmental issues – with natural resources
being eroded by short term growth focussed economy (& society)
This is far from a definitive
list, and there is much debate to be had regarding how priorities for the
future can be determined. But as Taylor
says, new questions demand new answers & his initial shortlist of ideas is
a starting point for this wider debate.
This is a debate beyond the old arguments of Left vs Right & more an
evolution of new mindsets.
Infinite possibilities
Several of Taylor’s proposed
answers (which, it should be noted, he does not advocate specifically but uses
to indicate “a sense of what radical new progressive thinking might actually
look like”) chime with some of my work with Infinite Futures. The call for a more strategically focussed
central state that encourages enterprise & fosters social innovation echoes
the main thrust of Will Hutton’s How Good We Can Be, a return to the
fray from a seasoned political economist who identifies both opportunities
& threats from new technological & economic challenges, & who
challenges neoliberal business orthodoxy with proposals for greater recognition
of public interest. Hutton also
champions devolution of power to local areas, specifically cities, beyond the
confines of current Whitehall control.
This is a recurring theme in the RSA’s work,
& is again reflected in Taylor’s proposals for local taxation, welfare
& policy diversity. Working in local
government during a time of unprecedented challenge, I am an enthusiast for
local devolution beyond cities, & have written
several times on the possibilities & responsibilities this movement could
bring. Subsidiarity, in Graham Allen MP’s words “an ugly word for a beautiful
concept”, is in my opinion a central element of any new social economy.
The challenge of inequality is
ever present in current public discourse.
Piketty’s Capital in the Twenty First Century,
Stiglitz’s The Price of Inequality, & most
recently Anthony Atkinson’s Inequality have all analysed &
drawn attention to concentrations of wealth & distributions of income. A radically different solution is proposed by
Andrew McNally, a 25 year
veteran in the banking industry who in Debtonator exposes modern finance’s reliance on debt & argues that
through broadening access to equity investment, inequality be addressed through
productive assets. Like Hutton, McNally
highlights examples & calls for greater employee share ownership in companies & a reassessment of
the neoliberal economic tenets of the invisible hand of the market & unbiased
rational investors; flawed theoretic constructs that, as Richard Thaler has
recently written, have nevertheless underpinned the perception of economics as
“the most powerful of the social sciences in an intellectual sense”[2]. To contest, challenge & reimagine
economics with a human dimension is a recurring aspiration.
In addition to the human
dimension, the Capital
Institute’s goal is to reimagine capitalism to focus on sustainability
& well-being. The Institute was
founded by John Fullerton, a former Managing Director of JPMorgan who, like
McNally, has an insider’s perspective on finance & banking. Fullerton’s insight that modern economics is
the “root cause of the(se) systemic crises” such as the 2008 financial crisis
is hardly unique, but his diagnosis of “regenerative” capitalism following
principles of systemic evolution is undoubtedly radical. I am currently writing a feature based on
Fullerton’s story & the ideas he proposes to affect change to “the future
of Finance”.
But as much as the books &
manifestos & blogs have inspired my thinking during this time, equally
important have been the conversations with innovators & demonstrations of
new approaches I have been fortunate to be involved with. Within the public sector, & despite the well
documented issues arising from austerity, the desire for progress & new
approaches is obvious. A distinct advantage of living in an era of constant
change is that adaptability & agility becomes normal, despite the popular
perceptions of the sector. This is not a
claim of woolly-minded utopianism, but in my experience it is especially true
of current generations who are bringing new perspectives of collaboration,
design & customer focus to address the challenges we face. Battles over sovereignty (particularly with
regard to devolution) & politics remain, but the opportunity to provide a
new generation of the civic functions & public goods demanded by citizens
is obvious. The challenge for local
government leaders and local representatives is to live up to the expectations,
accept the responsibilities available & prove their capabilities in order
to help their communities flourish. The
development of scenarios for future versions of local public services continues
to be an area of strong focus for me.
Beyond the public sector, my own
experience of an emerging cohort of entrepreneurs, creative thinkers &
social businesses indicates how & where employment may develop for future
generations. I’ve written before about ImpactHub Birmingham & similar
ventures that are re-embedding enterprise, creativity & pride into local
communities. Other examples include the Creative Quarter in Nottingham,
& I’ve recently come across the website for the Civic Systems Lab & its
goal to develop a local “participatory & civic economy”. Principles of ethical working,
sustainability, collaboration & social commitment are recurring themes. This
is not to say these examples are the answer to future employment, which will
necessarily be as diverse if not more so than the labour market of today: of
course there will be no one answer. The
questions of inequality & mobility will not be washed away by a Flat White
Economy alone. But a growth in what
John Howkins[3]
defines as a creative ecologies (&
not necessarily in so-called “creative industries”) provides “the seedbed for
creative economies” necessary to adapt, shape & invent the new human
economy proposed by Matthew Taylor.
Joining the dots
As I said as the start, this blog
has gone through several versions, & is by no means the finished article,
so to speak. Howkins refers to the online platform Ideolab setting out to
“always be in beta…(i.e.) draft, unfinished, open to change and improvement.”[4]
Hopefully what this blog does is summarise in beta form some of the themes
& interests I’ve been working on within a broader canvas of the
propositions set out in Matthew Taylor’s blog.
There are many voices in this
debate, & many different perspectives on the question of “what kind of
economy do we want in 2030?” It would be impossible (& foolish) to try to
include them all in a piece such as this, but the conversation should take
place as widely as possible. Again referring to Ideolab, my hope is that these
dialogues can be “inclusive, community-centred, collaborative &
optimistic.” In the run up to publishing this blog, I’ve been requesting
feedback on twitter & will continue to do so now. Please do contact me, post a comment or send
me a tweet if you’d like to join the dialogue & contribute to the debate & Infinite
Futures’ development.
Matthew Taylor’s annual RSA lecture will take place on 7th
July 2015, entitled “The Human Welfare Economy”.
